چکیده :اين تحقيق در پي يافتن پاسخ اين سوال است كه آيا استفاده از روش‌هاي تحليل تكنيكي در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران سودمند مي‌باشد يا خير؟ بدين منظور يكي از ساده‌ترين و در عين حال پركاربردترين روش‌هاي تحليل تكنيكي يعني ميانگين متحرك مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. اين بررسي از طريق آزمودن قواعد معاملاتي متعدد ميانگين متحرك بر روي شاخص كل بورس اوراق بهادار تهران از تيرماه سال 1371 تا پايان شهريور ماه سال 1383، صورت پذيرفته است. نتايج تحقيق نشان مي‌دهد كه روش‌هاي ميانگين متحرك داراي قابليت پيش‌بيني مي‌باشند و مي‌توانند الگوهاي قيمتي را به منظور انجام معاملات سودمند شناسايي نمايند. علاوه بر اين، تحقيق حاضر اين فرضيه كه روش‌هاي معاملاتي تكنيكي نسبت به استراتژي خريد و نگهداري بازده بيشتري ايجاد مي نمايند را تاييد نمود. طبق نتايج تحقيق به نظر مي‌رسد سودمندترين قاعده، ميانگين متحرك 5 روزه مي‌باشد. اين قاعده معاملاتي با ايجاد متوسط بازدهي سالانه حدود60 درصد در مقايسه با متوسط بازدهي سالانه نزديك به 36 درصدي روش خريد و نگهداري درهمين دوره، بهترين عملكرد را داشته است.
چکیده (انگلیسی):This Research is going to answer the question if the technical analyses help the people gain much return in Tehran Stock Exchange(TSE). Actually it wants to determine the benefits of using the technical analysis as tools to predict the price models & trends in TSE. Therefore, the Moving Average which is one of the most used technical tools in determining the price trends, price changes and movements, is used for this purpose. So this research is used to test the ability of Moving Average as tool to gain more profit than the other tools. This work is done in the period of 1371 till 1383 (Iranian Year).
The results show that the Moving Average can predict the price models & trends and helps the investors to have better transactions and more chance to make profit in TSE. Also the results shows that the return gained by using the technical strategies was more then the fundamentals like buy & hold, in TSE. This trading rule had about 60% gain, which was more than 36% gain obtained by buy & hold strategy (in the same time) In TSE.
فایل کامل مقاله :
دریافت (148.2 kB)
چکیده (انگلیسی):This Research is going to answer the question if the technical analyses help the people gain much return in Tehran Stock Exchange(TSE). Actually it wants to determine the benefits of using the technical analysis as tools to predict the price models & trends in TSE. Therefore, the Moving Average which is one of the most used technical tools in determining the price trends, price changes and movements, is used for this purpose. So this research is used to test the ability of Moving Average as tool to gain more profit than the other tools. This work is done in the period of 1371 till 1383 (Iranian Year).
The results show that the Moving Average can predict the price models & trends and helps the investors to have better transactions and more chance to make profit in TSE. Also the results shows that the return gained by using the technical strategies was more then the fundamentals like buy & hold, in TSE. This trading rule had about 60% gain, which was more than 36% gain obtained by buy & hold strategy (in the same time) In TSE.
فایل کامل مقاله :
دریافت (148.2 kB)
